Refused holds a purchase number; this version prints none
Its words stay off this page too, since the line holds a purchase number.
The idea
Second-guess your idea before you build it
AI finds the evidence. Code checks every quote.
Give your AI agent an idea. It searches the web, a small program checks every quote and number it reports, and you get one page with a chance, a date and the reasons.
npx skills add RazAndAlex/second-guessInstalls into Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI and the rest of the 79 agents the open installer lists. Run for real so far: Claude Code and Codex.
All 79 names in the installer’s list
- AiderDesk
- Amp
- Replit
- Universal
- Antigravity
- Antigravity CLI
- AstrBot
- Autohand Code CLI
- Augment
- IBM Bob
- Claude Code
- OpenClaw
- Cline
- Codex
- Dexto
- fx
- Kimi Code CLI
- Loaf
- Pi
- Sarvam Code
- Warp
- Zed
- CodeArts Agent
- CodeBuddy
- Codemaker
- Code Studio
- Command Code
- Continue
- Cortex Code
- Crush
- Cursor
- Deep Agents
- Devin for Terminal
- Droid
- Eve
- Firebender
- ForgeCode
- Gemini CLI
- GitHub Copilot
- Goose
- Grok Build
- Hermes Agent
- inference.sh
- Jazz
- Junie
- iFlow CLI
- Kilo Code
- Kimchi
- Kiro CLI
- Kode
- Lingma
- MCPJam
- MiniMax Code
- Mistral Vibe
- Moxby
- Mux
- OpenCode
- OpenHands
- Ona
- Posit Assistant
- Qoder
- Qoder CN
- Qwen Code
- Reasonix
- Rovo Dev
- Roo Code
- Tabnine CLI
- Terramind
- Tinycloud
- Trae
- Trae CN
- Windsurf
- ZCode
- Zencoder
- Zenflow
- Neovate
- Pochi
- PromptScript
- AdaL
You can lose months and money building the wrong thing.
Ask an AI first, and it may agree with you.
It can even invent a quote.
So here the AI has to argue, and code looks up what it says.
Your agent, your model, your plan
It runs on the agent you already have: Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot, Windsurf, Cline, Goose, OpenCode, Zed, Amp, Warp, Kimi Code CLI and Roo Code go in through the same open installer.
Run for real so far: Claude Code and Codex. The agent needs web search and must be able to run Python. second-guess ships no data, no model, no API key and no purchase number.
The AI looks
1AI
Find data
The agent lists what must be true for the idea to work, then looks for evidence. Here is one real idea from one real run.
“A subscription of refill tablets for household cleaning sprays, posted to homes in Italy every two months.”
- People run out every two months
- Plastic waste bothers them enough
- They already pay for sprays
- They would mix it themselves
- They would keep a fixed delivery
- They can be reached online
- Postage fits a small order
- Tablets clean well enough
- Rivals do not already do it better
- Labels and green claims hold up
Code checks
2Code
Check each card
Each card is a link, a word-for-word quote of 40 characters or more, the number inside it, the sample, the group of people and the year. Code opens the link or a web archive copy and looks for the quote. Then a second AI, the source reader, says if the card uses the quote fairly.
The fourteen cards of that run. Ten passed. Pick one.
Passed quote on page
“10,7 milioni di famiglie italiane (il 43% del totale) comprano online prodotti di largo consumo”
Passed quote on page
“Blueland already had its powder-to-gel body wash on Target shelves for about 18 months. Shoppers, Paiji-Yoo said, didn’t quite take to a product that required them to add water and shake it to make it work.”
Passed quote on page
“has a recurring refill payment every three months of just $24.75”
Refused holds a purchase number; this version prints none
Its words stay off this page too, since the line holds a purchase number.
Refused holds a purchase number; this version prints none
Its words stay off this page too, since the line holds a purchase number.
Passed quote on page
“It’s now raised an €18 million ($21.8 million) Series A funding round led by Felix Capital”
Passed quote on page
“(2-5 giorni lavorativi) Spedizione gratuita a partire da 29,00 €”
Passed quote on page
“Anticalcare Ricarica 2 x potere detergente contro lo sporco ostinato 5,99 €”
Passed quote on page
“2 x 30 ml Prezzo: € 7,20 prezzo: 120,00 euro per litro”
Passed quote on page
“500 ml Prezzo: € 2,99 prezzo: 5,00 euro per litro”
Passed quote on page
“con consegna in 4 giorni e opzione Reverse per la gestione dei resi) costa: 0-2 kg: 5,43€”
Passed quote on page
“64% of Italian consumers are increasingly anxious about the environment which ranks second after the concern for unemployment”
Refused holds a purchase number; this version prints none
Its words stay off this page too, since the line holds a purchase number.
A passing card means only that its words are on the page. Other real messages: quote not on page, quote shorter than 40 characters.
A refused card wilts
A line from Retail Dive on subscribers who cancel. The program refused it with this message.
holds a purchase number; this version prints none
3Code
Statistics, or “I don’t know”
I don’t know. No dataset that fits was found.
That is the real line from the real run. With no dataset that fits, the page says so.
The AI attacks
4AI
Attack
Six simulated people, hostile by design. Each says what kills the idea and gives you a question for a real person. They are AI role-play, and their words prove nothing.
My refill goes in the trolley with the pasta and the milk, without a thought. This idea swaps that for a sign-up, a parcel, a drawer of tablets and a new small job, and gives me nothing the trolley does not.
Ask a real one: Think about the last time your spray bottle ran out. Walk me through what you did next, from seeing it empty to having the new one in your hand.
One home uses very little spray and a tablet pack lasts a long time, so a parcel on a fixed rhythm is mostly a parcel nobody needs. The cupboard fills, the customer feels guilty and cancels. A thin order of one small thing also cannot carry its postage; I make delivery pay only with a big basket across laundry, dishwasher and kits.
Ask a real one: Think about the last group of customers who joined a refill subscription on a first-order offer. What happened to their orders over the following months, and what did you change afterwards?
The spray is already in the trolley because it was on offer, at a price I can see on the shelf. A box once kept charging me and took several emails to stop, so the word subscription already closes the page. A bill that lands every other month is a bill I forget.
Ask a real one: Think back to the last thing you signed up for that arrived at home on a schedule. Did you keep it, change it or stop it, how did you stop it, and where did you get that thing afterwards?
The tablet brings back the one job I switched to ready-made sprays to avoid, and the bottle runs empty at the wrong moment. My water is hard. An eco cleaner once streaked my glass and left limescale in the shower, and I went back to the strong brand. If the first bottle streaks, there is no second.
Ask a real one: Think about the last time you tried a cleaner that was not your usual brand. What happened on the glass and the shower with your tap water, and what did you get the next time you ran out?
The customer finishes making the product at home, so the liquid on the shelf sits in a bottle with no warning once the leaflet is in the bin. A child or a grandmother finding that bottle is the case that brings an inquiry. Green claims must also survive a whole-life check that includes a parcel to each house, or the claim goes and the subscription loses its reason to exist.
Ask a real one: Think of the last cleaning product you reviewed that the customer had to dilute or mix at home. What did you require on the label and leaflet, and what happened once the customer put the liquid in their own bottle?
Vinegar, bicarbonate and a cloth cover my cleaning, and the corner shop has the degreaser. A parcel once vanished with a neighbour, and a subscription a grandchild set up could not be stopped. An online account, a card and a postman are all things I avoid.
Ask a real one: Think about the last time you ran out of a cleaning product at home. What did you do that same day to get more, and where did you get it?
You get a lean
5CodeAI
Lean
Code saves a target, a date and a place first, so you can check later. Then the model gives its chance and its biggest reason.
20:41:10
Code saved the target. At least one of Esselunga, Coop or Conad lists, on its own website, refill tablets that a household dissolves in water to make a surface spray cleaner. By 5 Nov 2027. Place: The online shops and product pages of Esselunga, Coop and Conad.
20:42:04
15%
The AI gave its lean. Spray tablets ask shoppers to add water themselves, and these chains already stock bottle refills that ask for no new habit. This is the AI’s opinion, and the report says so.
6AI
Report text
The AI writes the words. These open the real report.
“The evidence points against this idea as described. The strongest objections are about habit and about the fixed rhythm: people already get spray cleaner on the weekly shop, and a home may use too little spray to need a parcel every two months.”
7Code
Check numbers, build the page
A number in the text that no checked card holds gets the draft refused. Pick a number from the real draft to see the card behind it.
Its limescale refill is priced at , and its delivery is free from . Everdrop raised a funding round, so it has money behind this format.
Held by a checked card quote on page
“Anticalcare Ricarica 2 x potere detergente contro lo sporco ostinato 5,99 €”
everdrop.it
Held by a checked card quote on page
“(2-5 giorni lavorativi) Spedizione gratuita a partire da 29,00 €”
everdrop.it
Held by a checked card quote on page
“It’s now raised an €18 million ($21.8 million) Series A funding round led by Felix Capital”
techcrunch.com
One page, with the number first
This is the first screen of the report from that run. It is one HTML file with no scripts and no outside requests, and it holds its own font, so it opens with no network.
15%
chance that Esselunga, Coop or Conad lists spray refill tablets by 5 Nov 2027
AI’s opinion claude-opus-5-5
Reason it would miss
Shoppers must add water, and chains already stock easier refills.
Statistics
I don’t know.
Computed by code
Assumptions
5 of 10 have a checked source
Counted by code
Use it
Test your next idea
One real run takes 5 to 14 minutes.
npx skills add RazAndAlex/second-guessOn your machine
The research stays with you. The program reads one fixed folder, idea-test-files/.
When the date comes
Tell the agent what happened. It reads the run folder.
Open source
MIT license. Read it, change it, keep it.